Nigeria now has the largest economy on the continent following the release of rebased GDP statistics. The previous base year of 1990 had become outdated due to changes in the structure of the economy. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) now estimates Nigeria’s GDP at N80.1trn in 2013 compared to N42.4trn prior to the rebasing. The
number of economic activities surveyed for the purposes of the calculation of GDP increased to 46 from 33 previously.
Better coverage (including of the informal sector), the inclusion of new industries, and methodological improvements led to significant increases in the contribution of the services sector, manufacturing, and construction.
On the other hand, value added by the agricultural, and the oil & gas sectors declined notably relative
The agricultural sector contributed 35% to GDP prior to rebasing, but is now only estimated to account for 21%. Meanwhile, the services sector’s contribution increased from 29% to 53% of GDP, with the telecommunications sector rising from 0.9% to 8.3% of GDP.
The manufacturing sector is now said to contribute 9% to GDP, compared to just 1.9% previously, while the oil & gas sector’s contribution has been revised down to 12.9% from 32.4% before rebasing. The NBS plans to rebase GDP figures every five years from now on to ensure that estimates remain up-to-date.
Real GDP growth is expected to improve to an average of 7.0% p.a. during 2014- 15 and further to 7.5% p.a. in 2016-17, driven by strong growth in the services and manufacturing sectors, and animprovement in electricity supply.
year (7.3% previously). These sharp adjustments were driven by revisions to the crude oil & natural gas sector, which is now estimated to have contracted by 13.1% last year and by 4.9% in 2012. In addition, real growth in the trade sector last year was revised to 6.6% from 7.8% previously, while transport & storage was downgraded to 3.8% from 5.1%.
Notably, growth in the finance & insurance sector for 2013 was scaled down from 21.0% to 8.6%. It appears that, with some sectors now being measured more accurately (and being much larger than was thought previously), their growth rates have been revealed to be lower in recent years than was previously thought.
In the first quarter of 2014, real GDP growth improved to 6.2% y-o-y compared to only 4.5% y-o-y in the corresponding period of last year. The crude oil & natural gas sector continued to contract (by 6.6% y-o-y) due to lower oil production, while non-oil real GDP expanded by 8.2% y-o-y, up from 7.4% y-o-y in Q1 2013. The NBS expects real GDP growth to pick up in the remainder of the year, with Q1 usually having the slowest expansion as it is the beginning of the planting season and since consumers tend to spend less. The NBS expects overall real GDP growth of at least 6.2% this year.