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Distractions not disruptions from 2019 Nigeria Elections

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Distractions not disruptions from 2019 Nigeria Elections

Since voting for the next president is due in little more than two weeks, we will try to disentangle some of the muddled views in circulation about the impact of Nigerian elections on the economy. The consensus is that the impact is unremittingly negative, and that the investor develops a ‘wait-and-see’ stance on auto-pilot.

One theory in circulation is that the government has no time for any business other than the programme of elections. We would say that a government seeking re-election will be pushing hard on its agenda to soften up the electorate. In the current Nigerian context, this means the FGN looking to accelerate its capital releases. Voters who see a new road/school/hospital built in their neighbourhood are more likely to back the incumbent. They will also respond positively if the government, federal or state, settles arrears on salaries and pensions due to family or friends.

Another theory is that existing and potential investors succumb to a state of inertia because they are worried by the “uncertainty” surrounding the elections. The result is uncertain of course but we can say with confidence that, whatever the result, Nigeria should not fear a radical change of direction. In 2015 we had the “change” agenda, and now we have talk of floating the naira and dismembering the NNPC. Alongside their negative campaigning and finger-pointing, serious challengers everywhere look to capture the attention of voters with striking policies.

There is scope on the margins for new policies that can be introduced without the go-ahead from the National Assembly (the equivalent of President Trump’s executive orders). More broadly, the delivery of change is blunted by bureaucratic torpor across the three tiers of government. This means that we should limit our expectations of the new government in place at the end of the transition period in May. It works both way: no fear of change for the worse but equally little hope of a strong market rally like those following the election victories of Lula, now disgraced, in Brazil in 2002 and Mauricio Macri in Argentina in 2015. There were very brief, relief rallies after the Nigerian presidential elections of 2011 and 2015.

The outcome to avoid next month is a very close result that is challenged on the streets and in the courts. The presidential term is four years on the US model and the transition period three months. The time for a president and government to make their mark is already limited without such challenges.

The downside from challenges to an election result was evident in Kenya in August 2017. The Supreme Court nullified the presidential election result from earlier in the month. The main opposition candidate, who had cried foul, boycotted the re-run in October, and the incumbent (Uhuru Kenyatta) was declared winner with 98 per cent of the vote. We cannot say whether a flawed process has any impact on output beyond the very short term but we can say that the developmental capacity of the Kenyan government was weakened for about three months. The stock market saw a sell-off on the intervention of the Supreme Court and has not subsequently recovered (although other factors are also clearly at play).

According to a third theory, the macroeconomy is vulnerable to a slowdown in the run-up to the elections. Our findings suggest that this theory is the result of laziness on the part of analysts, some of whom are looking to create a narrative for their forecasts. (We were taught, in contrast, to construct forecasts on the basis of a tested narrative.) So we looked at historical data for the run-up to the Nigerian presidential elections in April 2007, April 2011 and March 2015.

The series we covered were FGN expenditure, inflation, offshore investment on the stock market and domiciliary bank accounts in Nigeria. We did not find any adverse trends other than a pick-up in in FGN spending in the run-up to the 2011 polls, which we can trace to a sizeable increase in the national minimum wage by the Jonathan administration. Eight years on, we may well be seeing a repeat (that the FGN insists is incorporated in its 2019 budget proposals).

Our findings indicate that investors could profitably move on from the ‘wait-and-see” stance. They have waited and generally seen little, if anything untoward domestically. Foreign portfolio investors have been exiting local debt markets for several months, but in response to US monetary policy normalization rather than the Nigerian elections. As ever, the domestic events to trigger their exit remain pressure on the naira exchange, public finances and official fx reserves as a result of a steep and sustained decline in oil revenue. This is not our base case expectation.

History does not always repeat itself, and it may be that the lessons we have drawn from 2007, 2011 and 2015, subject to data restrictions, no longer apply. It may also be that the next president is able to push through far-reaching change on taking office in late May. We suggest otherwise.

 

Gregory Kronsten

Head, Macroeconomic & Fixed Income Research

FBNQuest

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Wild Fusion has been named one of the top digital agencies in the world

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Wild Fusion has been named one of the top digital, creative and marketing agencies in the world by Clutch, the leading B2B rating and review platform.

 

The new report by Clutch highlights the top-performing creative and digital agencies in 14 industries across several countries. The industries are automotive, business services, dental, e-commerce, education, financial services, financial technology, healthcare, hospitality, legal, nonprofit, real estate, and retail.

Nigerian digital marketing agency, Wild Fusion has been named one of the top creative and marketing agencies in the world across 14 industries, according to Clutch, a global rating platform.

About the award, Abasiama Idaresit, CEO, Wild Fusion , said, “We are honoured to be featured on this elite list of world-class agencies. We continue to lead through digital innovation and our expertise in social and digital marketing. This further proves that we are on the right path of prosperity for Nigeria and Africa.”

Click here to read more: Africa’s Wild Fusion Named Top Non-Profit SEO Company by Clutch

 

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Interesting facts about Nestoil Group and EPCC services in Nigeria 

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Nestoil is Nigeria’s largest indigenous Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) Company in the Oil and Gas sector. Nestoil group is divided into 4 categories:

 

  • Nestoil
  • IMPAC Engineering
  • B&Q Dredging
  • Energy Works Technology (EWT)
  • Hammakopp Consortium

 

Nestoil

Nestoil was incorporated in 1991. Nestoil is Nigeria’s largest indigenous Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC), Oil and Gas Engineering Company

 

IMPAC Engineering

 

IMPAC Engineering  has over 18 years of experience offering a broad range of engineering services and consultancy services, which include, but not limited to: feasibility studies; concept/basic design; Front End Engineering Design (FEED); Detailed Engineering Design (DED) and project and construction management in the energy industry.

 

B&Q Dredging

B & Q Dredging is an indigenous dredging company incorporated in 2005.They provide specialized engineering services in the following areas: Dredging, Flood and Erosion Control, Shore Protection and Consolidation, Sand filling of road embankments, River Crossing, Sweeping of Wellheads Slots and Access Channels

Energy Works Technology (EWT)

 

Energy Works Technology (EWT) is a private company incorporated in Nigeria in 1999. EWT’s capabilities include a full range of fabrication services for certified process packages and steel structures. Energy Works Technology (EWT) is a leading process Equipment Manufacturer, Steel Fabricator and Oil & Gas EPCI (Engineering Procurement Construction and Installation) service provider in Nigeria & West Africa.

 

Hammakopp Consortium

Hammakopp Consortium was incorporated in 1999 and are experts in developing projects.  They are experts in developing projects from the pre-feasibility phase through conceptual design and FEED studies, detailed design, procurement, construction and project management and implementation.It is one-stop-shop for Civil Construction, Maintenance & Fabrication, Environmental & Sewage treatment and other services in Nigeria.

 

Click here to know more about Nestoil

 

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Top 5 fastest African Growing Companies

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Wild Fusion

Wild Fusion is credited with kickstarting Nigeria’s Digital Marketing revolution. Established by Abasiama Idaresit, a Nigerian digital marketing showcasing business visionary and evangelist, Wild Fusion was one of the most punctual completely coordinated digital advertising organizations in sub-Saharan Africa. Wild Fusion, which was established with no outside venture, broadly helped a Nigerian independent company develop its incomes from $1,000 to $100,000 in a few months with imaginative Internet advertising. The organization administrations customers like Visa V +0%, Samsung, Vodafone VOD +0%, Pepsi and Unilever in Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. Wild Fusion gains imaginative focuses for presenting and advancing digital advertising in Africa and for cand for disrupting traditional marketing across the continent. Numerous Nigerian and African organizations presently devote a greater amount of their spending limit to digital marketing.

TaxTim

Taxtim is a South African online virtual duty partner and assessment arrangement administration that enables you to finish expense forms rapidly and effectively without counseling with a physical duty expert. Tim, the virtual assessment colleague, asks clients basic, plain language questions, and dependent on the appropriate responses, Tim rounds out your arrival accurately, for a most extreme expense discount. Documenting government forms in South Africa can be a long and tiring procedure. TaxTim, with its computerized help gives an advantageous answer for citizens for a yearly expense of $20. Marc Sevitz, a certified Chartered Accountant and charge expert, and Evan Robinson, a designer and programming engineer in 2011, established TaxTim.

Rasello

Rasello, founded by Tanzanian software entrepreneur Natalino Mwenda, is a cloud-based Customer Relationship Management (CRM) tool that lets business owners interact and manage customer records, automate customer retention and communication. 
You add your clients; Rasello automatically identifies customers who need birthday reminders, loyalty programs, service cycle renewals, etc. 

The software can be used via devices such as PCs, tablets, and smartphone

Triggerfish

Triggerfish is Africa’s biggest Computer Generated (CG) movement organization. It was established in 1996 as a boutique stop-outline activity studio and begun by creating TV plugs for South African organizations. In 2001, the organization created liveliness for the principal season of Takalani Sesame Street, the South African rendition of kids’ TV show Sesame Street. Triggerfish has likewise created activity for the U.S Sesame Street. A year ago, the Cape Town-based liveliness studio created its first element film, Adventures of Zambezia, a motion picture that recounts to the tale of a youthful, gullible yet rich hawk who leaves the barren desert where he lives with his dad in quest for activity and experience in the renowned feathered creature city of Zambezia. The motion picture was screened in any event 25 unique nations and pulled in over $22.1 million, as indicated by film industry magic. Triggerfish wins inventive focuses for utilizing innovation to empower imagination in structure the best movement studio in Africa.

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