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By the time Atiku finishes his tenure, presidency won’t be attractive – Gbenga Daniel

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By the time Atiku finishes his tenure, presidency won’t be attractive – Gbenga Daniel

THE Director-general of the Alhaji Atiku Abubabar presidential campaign, Otunba Gbenga Daniel has said that the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP candidate will appoint the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, from the South-West zone if he wins the 2019 election.

Speaking at an interactive session with reporters in Lagos, yesterday, Daniel, who also stated that Atiku would curtail tribal and religious intolerance, noted that decisions on major offices were being given “serious consideration”, adding that no region will be marginalised.

He said: “We need to understand that the candidate has control over who becomes his running mate during the election and who becomes the SGF, if he wins.

“The offices of senate president and speaker of the house of representative will be decided after the polls and based on what plays out in both houses. “Aside from major slots, I think what is paramount to the people of the South-West is restructuring of the country, which Atiku is very serious about. So the issue for the South-West is not personality or slot issue per say because personalities come and go but restructuring Nigeria is significant and more symbolic than zoned offices.”

With restructuring, Daniel asserted that “by the time Atiku finishes his tenure, the presidency won’t be attractive to anybody because he vowed to restructure Nigeria by delegating lots of power to both the state and local governments.’’ He said the edge Atiku has over other candidates is that he was once a vice-president, he is the eldest among them and he is set to address the problems of tribal and religious intolerance squarely .”

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Distractions not disruptions from 2019 Nigeria Elections

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Distractions not disruptions from 2019 Nigeria Elections

Since voting for the next president is due in little more than two weeks, we will try to disentangle some of the muddled views in circulation about the impact of Nigerian elections on the economy. The consensus is that the impact is unremittingly negative, and that the investor develops a ‘wait-and-see’ stance on auto-pilot.

One theory in circulation is that the government has no time for any business other than the programme of elections. We would say that a government seeking re-election will be pushing hard on its agenda to soften up the electorate. In the current Nigerian context, this means the FGN looking to accelerate its capital releases. Voters who see a new road/school/hospital built in their neighbourhood are more likely to back the incumbent. They will also respond positively if the government, federal or state, settles arrears on salaries and pensions due to family or friends.

Another theory is that existing and potential investors succumb to a state of inertia because they are worried by the “uncertainty” surrounding the elections. The result is uncertain of course but we can say with confidence that, whatever the result, Nigeria should not fear a radical change of direction. In 2015 we had the “change” agenda, and now we have talk of floating the naira and dismembering the NNPC. Alongside their negative campaigning and finger-pointing, serious challengers everywhere look to capture the attention of voters with striking policies.

There is scope on the margins for new policies that can be introduced without the go-ahead from the National Assembly (the equivalent of President Trump’s executive orders). More broadly, the delivery of change is blunted by bureaucratic torpor across the three tiers of government. This means that we should limit our expectations of the new government in place at the end of the transition period in May. It works both way: no fear of change for the worse but equally little hope of a strong market rally like those following the election victories of Lula, now disgraced, in Brazil in 2002 and Mauricio Macri in Argentina in 2015. There were very brief, relief rallies after the Nigerian presidential elections of 2011 and 2015.

The outcome to avoid next month is a very close result that is challenged on the streets and in the courts. The presidential term is four years on the US model and the transition period three months. The time for a president and government to make their mark is already limited without such challenges.

The downside from challenges to an election result was evident in Kenya in August 2017. The Supreme Court nullified the presidential election result from earlier in the month. The main opposition candidate, who had cried foul, boycotted the re-run in October, and the incumbent (Uhuru Kenyatta) was declared winner with 98 per cent of the vote. We cannot say whether a flawed process has any impact on output beyond the very short term but we can say that the developmental capacity of the Kenyan government was weakened for about three months. The stock market saw a sell-off on the intervention of the Supreme Court and has not subsequently recovered (although other factors are also clearly at play).

According to a third theory, the macroeconomy is vulnerable to a slowdown in the run-up to the elections. Our findings suggest that this theory is the result of laziness on the part of analysts, some of whom are looking to create a narrative for their forecasts. (We were taught, in contrast, to construct forecasts on the basis of a tested narrative.) So we looked at historical data for the run-up to the Nigerian presidential elections in April 2007, April 2011 and March 2015.

The series we covered were FGN expenditure, inflation, offshore investment on the stock market and domiciliary bank accounts in Nigeria. We did not find any adverse trends other than a pick-up in in FGN spending in the run-up to the 2011 polls, which we can trace to a sizeable increase in the national minimum wage by the Jonathan administration. Eight years on, we may well be seeing a repeat (that the FGN insists is incorporated in its 2019 budget proposals).

Our findings indicate that investors could profitably move on from the ‘wait-and-see” stance. They have waited and generally seen little, if anything untoward domestically. Foreign portfolio investors have been exiting local debt markets for several months, but in response to US monetary policy normalization rather than the Nigerian elections. As ever, the domestic events to trigger their exit remain pressure on the naira exchange, public finances and official fx reserves as a result of a steep and sustained decline in oil revenue. This is not our base case expectation.

History does not always repeat itself, and it may be that the lessons we have drawn from 2007, 2011 and 2015, subject to data restrictions, no longer apply. It may also be that the next president is able to push through far-reaching change on taking office in late May. We suggest otherwise.

 

Gregory Kronsten

Head, Macroeconomic & Fixed Income Research

FBNQuest

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Atiku Abubakar speaks on reunion with Obasanjo, his endorsement by religious leaders

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Atiku Abubakar speaks on reunion with Obasanjo, his endorsement by religious leaders

Atiku Abubakar speaks on reunion with Obasanjo, his endorsement by religious leaders

Atiku Abubakar speaks on reunion with Obasanjo, his endorsement by religious leaders

Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Atiku Abubakar has expressed excitement on the outcome of his meeting with former President, Olusegun Obasanjo.

The leaders met on Thursday at Obasanjo’s residence in Abeokuta, Ogun State.

Atiku wrote on his Twitter page after the meeting: “It was exciting meeting with my former boss and having lunch with him in Abeokuta.

Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Atiku Abubakar has expressed excitement on the outcome of his meeting with former President, Olusegun Obasanjo.

The leaders met on Thursday at Obasanjo’s residence in Abeokuta, Ogun State.

Atiku wrote on his Twitter page after the meeting: “It was exciting meeting with my former boss and having lunch with him in Abeokuta.

“Thank you for the prayers, Bishop Oyedepo. God bless Nigeria.”

Obasanjo had in the meeting endorsed Atiku’s presidential ambition.

He declared that Atiku will defeat the incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2019.

According to him, he believes that Atiku has ‘re-discovered and re-positioned himself’ and is now good enough to enjoy his support in the next election.

Obasanjo said, “Let me start by congratulating President-to-be, Atiku Abubakar, for his success at the recent PDP Primary and I took note of his gracious remarks in his acceptance speech that it all started here.”

At the meeting were outspoken clerics, Bishop David Oyedepo, Bishop Matthew Kukah and Sheikh Ahmed Gumi.

Also at the meeting were leader of apex Yoruba group, Pa Ayo Adebanjo, former Ogun State Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, PDP National Chairman, Prince Uche Secondus, ex PDP deputy national chairman, Bode George, Senator Murray Ben-Bruce, ex Cross River Governor, Liyel Imoke, ex-Minister Osita Chidoka, among many others.

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What You Need to Know About Mr Peter Obi For Governor of Anambra State

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What You Need to Know About Mr Peter Obi For Governor of Anambra State

INTRODUCING THE ORACLE AGAIN…..

NAME : Mr. Peter Gregory OBI, (CON)

CONTACT DETAILS

*22 Niger Drive, GRA, Onitsha, Anambra State, Nigeria
*Tel: 08034051000
*E-mail: poanambra@gmail.com

DATE OF BIRTH : 19th July 1961,

PLACE OF BIRTH: Onitsha, Nigeria

NATIONALITY: Nigerian

MARITAL STATUS: Married with two children

EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS ATTENDED

· Christ the King College, Onitsha (W.A.S.C.)

. University of Nigeria, Nsukka (B.A. Philosophy)

· Lagos Business School, Nigeria (Chief Executive Program)

· Harvard Business School, Boston, U.S.A. (Mid to Mid Marketing)

· Harvard Business School, Boston, U.S.A. (Changing the Game)

· London School of Economics (Financial Mgmt/Business Policy)

· Columbia Business School, New York, U.S.A. (Marketing Mgmt )

· Institute for Management Development, Switzerland (Senior Executive Program)

· Institute for Management Development, Switzerland (Break-Through Program for CEOs)

· Kellogg Graduate School of Management, U.S.A. (Advanced Executive Program)

· Kellogg School of Management U.S.A. (Global Advanced Mgmt Program)

. Oxford University: Said Business School, (Advanced Mgmt& Leadership Program)

. Cambridge University: George Business School (Advanced Leadership Program)

PREVIOUS POSITIONS

· Governor, Anambra State of Nigeria (2006-2014)

· Honorary Special Adviser to the President on Finance (till May, 2015)

· Member, Presidential Economic Management Team (till May, 2015)

· Vice-Chairman, Nigeria Governors’ Forum (2008-2014)

· Chairman, South-East Governors’ Forum (2006-2014)

. Former Chairman: Board of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

· Former Chairman: Fidelity Bank Plc.

· Former Chairman: Guardian Express Mortgage Bank, Ltd.

· Former Chairman: Future Views Securities, Ltd.

· Former Chairman: Paymaster Nigeria Plc.

· Former Chairman: Next International (Nigeria) Ltd

· Former Director: Guardian Express Bank Plc.

· Former Director: Chams Nigeria Plc.

· Former Director: Emerging Capital Ltd

· Former Director: Card Centre Plc

MEMBERSHIP OF PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS/ORGANIZATIONS

· Member, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)

· Member, Nigerian Chartered Institute of Bankers

· Member, British Institute of Directors (IOD)

MEMBERSHIP OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT COMMITTEES

In my capacity as the Governor of Anambra State, I served as a member of:

*Federal Government Committee on Minimum Wage

*Federal Government Committee on Negotiation with Labour on Subsidy

*Federal Government Committee on Mass Transit

*Federal Government Committee on Natural Resource

*National Economic Council Committee on Power Sector Reform

*National Economic Council Committee on Sharing of MDGs Funds

*National Economic Council Committee on Accurate Data on Nigeria’s Oil Import and Export

*Agricultural Transformation Implementation Council

*Sub-Committee on Needs Analysis of Public Universities in Nigeria

*National Economic Council Review Committee on the Power Sector

AWARDS & RECOGNITIONS

2015: Golden Jubilee Award from Catholic Diocese of Onitsha for outstanding contribution to quality healthcare delivery in St. Charles Borromeo Hospital in particular and Anambra State in general, on the occasion of the Golden Jubilee celebration of the hospital.

*2014: Nigerian Library Association Golden Merit Award for remarkable improvement of libraries in Anambra State, exemplified by our Government’s construction of the Kenneth Dike Digital State Library, remarkable upgrade of the Onitsha Divisional Library, and provision of library facilities in secondary schools across the State.

*2014: Champion Newspaper Most Outstanding Igbo Man of the Decade.

* 2014 The Voice Newspaper (Holand) Achievers Award for Outstanding Example in Leadership and Governance.

*2013: Silver Bird Man of the Year (with Governor BabatundeFashola of Lagos State).

*2012: Business Hallmark Newspaper Man of the Year.

*2012: The Golden Award on Prudence – by the Methodist Church of Nigeria as the Most
Financially Prudent Governor in Nigeria.

* 2012: Leadership and Good Governance Award by The Ezeife Leadership Foundation Award for restoring peace and harmony to Anambra State.

* 2012: Best Performing Governor on Immunization in South-East Nigeria – by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

* 2012: Outstanding Financial Planner and Manager – by the Church of Nigeria, Anglican Communion for my resourcefulness and creativity in governance.

*2011: Zik Leadership Prize.

*2010: ICT Governor of the Year – by the West Africa ICT Development Award.

*2009: Champion Newspaper Nigeria’s Most Trustworthy Governor Award.

*2009: Thisday Newspaper Most Prudent Governor in Nigeria.

*2007: The Sun Newspaper Man of the Year Award.

**The Nigerian MDGs Office/UNDP Best Governor in the Implementation of the MDGs in Nigeria

INTRODUCTION OF CONSTITUTIONAL AND OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN NIGERIAN POLITICS

*He was the first gubernatorial candidate in Nigeria to legally challenge to its logical conclusion, his governorship electoral victory that was denied him. He won in the Courts and reclaimed his mandate.

*He was the first Governor in Nigeria to legally challenge his wrongful impeachment and was reinstated by the Courts.

*He was the first Governor in Nigeria to seek the interpretation of tenures of Governors when INEC allowed elections to take place in Anambra State when his tenure had not expired; the election already concluded was cancelled and he was allowed to complete his tenure.

*He was the first Governor to serve a 2nd term in both the new and old Anambra State, that is, almost 40 years after creation of the State.

*He was the first Governor, whilst still in Office, to be appointed a Special Adviser to the President.

*He was the first serving Governor to be appointed into the Presidential Economic Management Team.

*He was among the first Governors to be honoured with a National Award in 2011, while still in office.

*Though the only Governor whose political party was in government in only one State, he was elected Vice-Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum twice.

*Though the only non-PDP Governor in the South-East (made up of 5 States), he was elected by the other 4 PDP Governors as their Chairman for 8 years rather than the usual one year.

FUNDAMENTAL ACHIEVEMENTS AS GOVERNOR OF ANAMBRA STATE (PARTIAL LISTING)

1. Anambra was the first State to commence Sub-Sovereign Wealth savings, the first of its kind in Sub-Saharan Africa. At a time many other Governors were leaving huge debts, I left the equivalent of $500 million Dollars in investment as well as local and foreign currency, including $156 million in Dollar-denominated bonds.

2. For the first time in the history of Anambra State, Ambassadors and High Commissioners of notable countries such as United Stated, Britain, Russia, European Union, South Africa, Belgium, Israel, the Netherlands, Canada, among others, visited the State. Before my tenure, Anambra was practically a pariah state blacklisted by the Diplomatic Corps and international development partners.

3. Development partners such as UNDP, UNICEF, the World Bank, DFID, the European Union etc., which hitherto were not in Anambra State started working with the State. Anambra was consistently adjudged one of the best states in development partnership and commitment to reforms for good governance.

4. He was recognised as Best Governor by the Millennium Development Goals Office (OSSAP-MDGs) and the UNDP in the implementation of their programmes in Nigeria.

5. The Nigerian Debt Management Office (DMO) rated Anambra as the least indebted state in Nigeria. In spite of visible and measurable achievements recorded in various sectors, the State under him did not borrow or raise bonds for her various projects.

6. The Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria rated Anambra State as the most financially stable state in the country.

7. The State’s ground-breaking return of schools to their original owners – Voluntary Agencies (Churches) on 1st January 2009, and subsequent partnership with the Agencies in Education, saw the State move from 24th position out of 36 States to Number One in National Examination Council (NECO) and West African Examination Council (WAEC) examinations for three consecutive years. This made the World Bank to commission a study, led by the renowned Prof. Paul Collier of Oxford University, on this revolutionary partnership and phenomenal achievement.

8. The State also entered into strategic partnership with the Churches in the Health sector. This symbiotic relationship resulted in a tremendous boost to health care because of the services offered by health institutions owned by Voluntary Agencies, while the State restored grants to the agencies and made available to them more than 50 million Dollars in various types of support.

10. Through partnership with the Church in the Health sector, his Government funded the transformation of -:

a: Iyienu Hospital, Ogidi;
b: Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital, Ihiala;
c: St Charles Borromeo Hospital, Onitsha;
d: Holy Rosary Hospital, Waterside, Onitsha; and
e: St. Joseph Hospital, Adazi-Nnukwu.
His Government also built the Joseph Nwilo Heart Centre in St. Joseph, Adazi-Nnukwu, where heart operations are now being performed.

11. His Government won the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (1 Million dollars) as the best-performing state in immunisation in the South-East. With complementary funding from our Government, they used the money to build 10 Maternal and Child Care Centres across the State, particularly in rural communities, in partnership with the Churches.

12. The State was the first to procure and distribute more than 30,000 computers to secondary schools, including 22,500 from HP. The Managing Director for Personal Systems Group HP Inc, Mr. FabriceCampoy described the deployment as the biggest of such projects in the Middle-East and Africa.

13. Anambra State Government provided Microsoft Academies to more than 500 secondary schools, which the Head of Microsoft in Nigeria (Mr. Ken Span) described as the biggest such deployment in Africa so far.

14. The State provided Internet access to more than 500 secondary schools, which the CEO of Galaxy Backbone (Mr. Gerald Ilukwe) characterized as incomparable to any in the country.

15. More than 700 buses were provided to secondary schools in the State by our Government.

16. Boreholes were provided in schools all over the State.

17. Numerous classrooms were built in all the 177 communities of the State.

18 As part of the efforts to turn around the economy of the State, a number of companies were attracted to build their facilities in the Anambra State. A case in point is SABMiller, the 2nd largest brewery in the world, which built their first Green Field facility in the State, which is today one of the most successful facilities they operate globally.

19. A number of other companies followed the SABMiller initiative and were all supported and encouraged under our Government; a good example is INNOSON Motor Manufacturing Company, from which our government bought more than 1,000 vehicles.

20. Anambra State for the first time started close collaboration with recognized government security agencies (the Police, Army, Navy, Department of State Security, Civil Defence, among others), offering them various types of support including provision of more than 500 security vehicles. The improvement in security was phenomenal, such that the former IG of Police (Abubakar Mohammed) lauded Anambra State for not witnessing any bank robbery in my last three years in office.

21. To further enhance security, Anambra State provided at least one security vehicle to each of all the 177 communities in the State as well as various organizations such as markets and Churches.

22. His Administration conceived and built, from scratch, the first state-owned Teaching Hospital, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu teaching Hospital, Awka.

23. His Government commenced the planned development of the Igbariam Campus of the ChukwuemekaOdumegwu-Ojukwu University, including the fencing, construction of internal roads, electrification, construction of the Faculty of Law, Auditorium, Administrative Block, Faculty of Agriculture, Management Building, among others).

24. His Government attracted the World Bank support on erosion – National Erosion and Watershed Management Project (NEWMAP) – to Anambra State.

25. His Government was the first to do Poverty Mapping in Nigeria, as a guide for the effective implementation of our poverty-alleviation strategies.

26 His Government, for the first time, undertook the aerial mapping of Awka as well as the production of Structure Plans for Awka Capital Territory, Onitsha and Nnewi.

27. During his tenure and with his Government’s support, Anambra State became an oil producing State.

28. He built the first Secretariat Complex to house State Government Ministries that were hitherto scattered around the State.

29. His government commenced the development of the ‘Three Arms Zone’ comprising Government House/Governor’s Lodge, Legislative Building/Speakers Residence, and Judiciary Building with Chief Judge’s Residence.

30. By the end of his tenure in 2014, more than twelve (12) health institutions, including two hospitals, had secured accreditation; when we took off in 2006, no health institution in Anambra State was duly accredited.

31. Anambra State was the first to undergo national peer review, which scrutinised State Governments for good governance, through the State Peer Review Mechanism (SPRM), an initiative of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum in collaboration with the DFID.

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